Australia’s wine export industry has recorded a modest overall increase in value, but a look at key markets suggest a complex outlook ahead, according to Wine Australia’s latest export bulletin.
In the year ended September 2025, Australian wine exports increased by two per cent in value to $2.44bn and decreased by four per cent in volume to 618 million litres. Average value increased by six per cent to $3.94 per litre free on board (FOB).
Wine Australia said: “The decline in volume indicates that increasing exports to mainland China are no longer able to offset the decline in volume to other major markets.”
While exports to China rose year-on-year, they remain 28 per cent lower in value and 40 per cent lower in volume compared with the year ending September 2020, just before tariffs were imposed on bottled Australian wine, reflecting ongoing subdued demand in the market.
When you take mainland China out of the equation, shipments to the rest of the world declined by 11 per cent in value to $1.59bn and seven per cent in volume to 545 million litres.
Wine Australia reported: “Australian wine exports to mainland China increased by 39 per cent in value to $847m and 26 per cent in volume to 73 million litres.”
However, Wine Australia notes a caveat, while rolling 12-monthly value has been relatively stable, volume has been on a steady decline since the post-tariff peak in March 2025.
According to customs data, Chinese wine imports from France, Chile, Italy, and Spain declined in the 12 months ended August 2025. While imports of Australian wine offset some of this decline, total wine imports declined by seven per cent year-on-year.
The UK market is facing significant headwinds, with Wine Australia saying: “In the 12 months to September 2025, Australian wine exports to the UK declined by seven per cent in value to $337m and 14 per cent in volume to 191 million litres, the lowest volume shipped to the market since 2002.”
Much of the drop is driven by bulk/unpackaged shipments, which dominate UK-destined volumes, but there is some silver lining among higher-priced packaged wine, as premium packaged shipments above $7.50 per litre FOB increased by 16 per cent in volume.
Wine Australia cites factors such as cost-of-living pressures, freight and administrative burdens as weighing on the market.
The US continues to be a challenge Australian wine exporters, with exports declining by 10 per cent in value to $306m and increasing by six per cent in volume to 120 million litres.
While volume rose, the value decline signals pressure on margins and product mix. Wine Australia notes heavy exposure to the low-priced segment, saying: “Wine priced at below US$10 per bottle on the retail shelf has been declining at a faster rate – five per cent per year.
“According to off-premise sales data, 85 per cent of Australian wine sales are in the US$4-US$7.99 price point, meaning that Australia is highly exposed to the decline in this segment of the market.”
The largest destination region for Australian wine exports is Europe, representing 44 per cent of volume. In the past 12 months, volume shipped to this region declined by 13 per cent to 271 million litres, while value declined by eight per cent to $494m.
